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Neils’ Big MMO Prediction: EA Bioware Takes All

AoC, Warhammer Online and every other game out there will serve to divvy up player populations for an eventual virtual world takeover under the banner of EA Bioware/Bioware Austin’s under-development MMO.

  • Bioware has a unique pool of experience and resource with the basic RPG gameplay model
  • While AoC is currently a hot topic inside WoW, shipping 1 million copies is not the same thing as building up 10 million subscribers, there are myriad factors that haven’t hit tipping point (let alone a point of long term retention) with AoC
  • Warhammer has 700,000 users signed up and hoping to test closed beta (though for how long they’ve been signed up is another matter). At release Warhammer is going to be ~30% drain on whatever WoW’s population is at the time and 60-80% drain on AoC usage. At least it will be if it has momentum to the tune of 700,000 ready gamers.

    • A mage in Eastern Plaguelands. Maybe Westfall.
    That’s a Mage in Westfall, right?

    This is very likely why the timing of Warhammer and Warcraft’s release dates has been liquid. Timing is literally going to be everything when it comes to WotLK (Warcraft’s upcoming expansion) and Warhammer Online’s release. I suspect that both Blizzard and EA Mythic are dealing not just with actual delays in production, but a cat-and-mouse game, heavily based on user statistics and strategies in attracting population. There’s just too much money in this for that not to be a top consideration. Having 700,000 users ready for a beta is impressive, but like AoC it teeters on that edge, where the publisher really needs to be a 2150+ rated PvPer if it wants to compete with all the investment that gamers have in WoW. WoW has its detractors as well, though some of these carry over to virtual worlds in general.

    From what I gather having played their games and met their people, EA Bioware/Bioware Austin could, in the words of the immortal Tim Gunn, “Make it work.”

    Or perceived addiction serves to burn out the entire industry, making this whole experiment in game-like virtual worlds (in the words of my friend Nik) “a flash in the pan.”


    “FEAR THE RAVAGER!” Comic ©2008 Jared Norberg, reprinted with permission.

    Neils Clark :: Jun.06.2008 :: Games ::

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